LOTS of freshmen don't make it to state, as well as many sophomores, juniors and seniors.
Going to State is not an entitlement. Lots of good, very solid wrestlers don't make it. Also, not making it to state does not mean a high school career was unsuccessful. I personally know a young man who was a solid, very solid, HS wrestler (20+ matches won his junior and senior years) but never made it to state. He went on to wrestle four years in college, and while he did not set the world on fire he did wrestle varsity from time to time. I know another young man who wrestled JV for three years because of the kids ahead of him on his team; his senior year he made it to State and won it.
I really have no uplifting story, just the suggestion that you tell the young man you are worried about that making it to State is not a guarantee or promise. He needs to work hard(er), get in the weight room, wrestle in the summer, compete year 'round in SOMETHING and wrestle each match like it might be his last.