The biggest fault I can find is in the number projections. They would be valid only if you get a correspondent no. of kids out. Sad fact is that most 5 and 6 a kids don't participate in sports. they look at how many kids there are and assume they have no chance. that is a guess but it is the most civil reason I can come up with.
Look at the number of open weights on 5a and 6a teams and compare with 123a teams and you see that the 123 students participate at a very much higher level. most 123a teams of any consequence have as many or more kids out than most 5a and 6a teams. that is why they are better-- there are simply more of them that care about wrestling and their part in it.