Looking at the two (guesstimated) line-ups, it will come down to bonus points and three key matches.

KS has the advantage at 103, 112, 119, 189, and HWT.

MO has the advantage at 130, 135, 145, 152, 215 and 171.

The toss-ups are 125, 140, and 160

I think for Kansas to pull this off they will have to stay off their backs and win at least two of the toss-ups.