Chewie's 4A predictions

Okay, I think this is the 3rd year in a row I've done this and it takes a lot of time. I went through the brackets and predicted the outcome for every match, bonus points included, and figured up the team scores. This is not as easy as it looks so take it easy on me.


Team scores
1.Clay Center 151
2.Colby 133
3.Andale 106
4.Prairie View 71
5.Goodland 69
6.Labette County 60
7.Abilene 59
8.Paola 58
9.Santa Fe Trail 56
10.Baldwin 55
11.Chanute 53
12.Royal Valley 52
13.Andover Central 49
14.Columbus 42
15.Towanda-Circle 40
16.Smokey Valley 35
17.Pratt 32
18.Spring Hill 31
19.Concordia 30
19.Douglass 30
21.Basehor-Linwood 21
21.Clearwater 21
21.KC Piper 21
21.Rose Hill 21
25.Jeff West 19
26.Louisburg 18
26.St. James Academy 18
26.Wamego 18
29.Augusta 16
30.Chapman 13
31.Ottawa 12
32.Anderson County 11
32.Tonganoxie 11
34.Russell 10
35.Atchison 9
35.Fredonia 9
35.Hesston 9
35.Hiawatha 9
35.Perry-Lecompton 9
40.Eudora 8
40.Holton 8
42.Wellington 7
43.Fort Scott 4
43.Hugoton 4
43.Marysville 4
46.Bishop Ward 3
46.Mulvane 3
46.Osawatomie 3
46.Ulysses 3
50.Buhler 1
51.El Dorado 1


103

1. Ornelas
2. Stroot
3. Moeder
4. Cook
5. Cole
6. Hosey

112

1. Callahan
2. Seaton
3. Singular
4. Gentzler
5. Dwyer
6. Schmidtberger

119

1. Slyter
2. Weller
3. Cokeley
4. Anderson
5. Ribelin
6. Rockhold

125

1. Cox
2. Ford
3. Hood
4. Huffman
5. Brewer
6. Medlin

130

1. Noblet
2. Callahan
3. Jesseph
4. Hill
5. Luedke
6. Umscheid


135

1. Napier
2. Salyer
3. Olsen
4. Peterson
5. Mumaw
6. Bowser

140

1. Naylor
2. AJ Stephens
3. Whitley
4. H Stephens
5. Wuthnow
6. Hopkins


145

1. Sommer
2. Wallace
3. Arb
4. Armstrong
5. Anderson
6. Hermreck

152

1. Watson
2. Lackey
3. Prater
4. Deeds
5. Hambleton
6. Lemon

160

1. Thoman
2. Davis
3. Tischhauser
4. Hambleton
5. Shaft
6. Carlson

171

1. Willman
2. Kriss
3. Randall
4. Stuart
5. Bortz
6. Hasenbank

189

1. Marrs
2. Rupnick
3. Rivard
4. Bugbee
5. Ewing
6. Lamay

215

1. Kober
2. Pierce
3. Kriss
4. Jones
5. Fiscus
6. Newson

285

1. Doxon
2. Hilley
3. Roberts
4. Finney
5. Burns
6. Hackathron

You are a madman Chewie! I love it. You've been pretty close on my son Jon over the last few years.

I really think schmidtberger will do better than 6th,i think with callahan on the other side of the bracket he will make the finals; thats just my opinion though

I see a little different order in 2/3/4, but with the same wrestlers as Chewie. I would have Schmidtberger going to the back in the 2nd round to Seaton then losing to Singular in the Consolation semis. Think also he will be wrestling Dwyer for 5/6, but possibly could also be a rematch of his regional finals with Eck. Would still have to say Chewie is on with his 6th place finish.

ok...well...what can i say... being away from kansas makes this more fun for me... its like march madness.
champs listed 1st
103- Ornellas v Stroot
112- Genzler v Callahan (upset special, and close match in semis seaton/genzler)
119- Slyter v Cokely (Cokely Making it through a VERY tough friday)
125- Cox v Brewer
130- Callahan v Noblet (callahan finally gets the win)
135- Napier v Mumaw (Mumaw beating peterson in a good semi)
140- Stephans v Clarke (Clarke got 4th in a tough regional, but is prime for a cinderella roll)
145- Sommer v Arb???
152- Watson v Lackey
160- Tischauser v Hambleton (long time since i saw tischauser wrestle)
171- Stuart v Kriss
189- Rupnick v Marrs
215- Kober v the bracket ( Kober seems to be best by far)
285- Doxon v Hilley ( Tough top side bracket)

why is no one giving sparr any love at 119??? did i miss him getting beat by someone not that good? i give him 5th in 119, and rockhold 6th.

119 is really hard to predict. To me that bracket is pretty wide open and if one of those handful of wrestlers has an outstanding tournament I don't think too many people would be surprised. Zac Sparr could do it.

Chewie: I hope your predictions are right, especially in the 152lbs. But I do think you are misjudging one person in 171. I think Noel Richardson will continue to surprise people and place either 5th or 6th. No one knows him that well because he had mono last year that kept him out of the state tournament. But he is good, very good.

I think I had him getting beat out by Hasenbank. If he placed it wouldn't surprise me. Who did he lose to at the Concordia dual tournament?

scarecrow might not be too far off on 140.. clarkes got a win over whitley I believe, and an ot loss to naylor, will take a great effort, but definitely in the cards..

Hasenbank stuck that chapman kid she is talking about. I thing your predictions look pretty good, other than your bias. I think 145 is wide open for a number of wrestlers. Cant wait for the 140 semis also.

The only thing i see is that Moeder from Colby beat Stroot at clearwater last weekend, not saying that Stroot wont beat him at state. It will be interesting to see how that ends up.

119 is loaded. 145 is very interesting as well. 3 of the top 7 in kit harris poll came out of the perry regional i got to see. Wallace from Clay Center is a bull and strong as hell. Orel from ward is extremely quick and gave wallace all he wanted in the semis. Fazel from concordia is extremely well rounded who nearly upset wallace in the finals. Not saying that any of these wrestlers will win but they could make some noise. Still not as loaded as 119, there are a lot of good wrestlers there.

Some of the weight classes, i really had no idea, so like the best record, or if i knew the name.

as far as matches go
at 135 it might be closer than you think. Napier, and mumaw are both kind of wrestlers who like to keep it close. But Dylan has to make it there first.

at 112 I just called the upset because, i remember earlier in the year hearing that genzler beat a senior stephen santiago, which is pretty impressive.

I know that Noel has only lost five times so far. I am not sure who all he has lost too though. I do know that he only lost to Willman by one at the beginning of the season and he lost to CJ Randall 6-3 at Regionals. I also know that he lost to Hasenbank by a pin but he also pinned Hasenbank at the Concordia duals. Then, I know his other two loses were at the Basehor/Linwood Tournament but I don't know who to.

If there is one that I am it is biased. I picked Clay to win last year and it happened.

140 i think noller from russell could be a sleeper; took AJ to a 9-3 match i believe and took spangler 7-5 i look for him to make it to the semis but most likely lose to naylor there

In order for them to wreslte again, Moeder would have to pull the upset on Ornelas as they are on the same side of the bracket. Stroot is opposite and would be the favorite to be headed to the finals,thus the order of Chewies placing he has listed.

Wallace and Davis WILL NOT be in the finals....bias

Sparr lost a close match to Slyter last year in the semi's 4-2. Sparr meets him in the semi's again this year, and has a great chance of making the finals.

That just means that Sharky took him down twice and cut him twice. The scores in Sharky's matches are usually not an indication of his ability to dominate an opponent. JMO

Thanks for pointing out me being biased. I don't think anybody else caught that after I've said it about 10 times in the last week. I don't think that many people thought Davis would be in the finals of last years state tourny either.

well, my previous statement, of not doubting sparr stands. BUT there is a difference when he is wrestling some one like sharky, and yes, alot of sharkys matches a very close. Sharky would be just fine winning match 2-0, or 4-3.

The Sparr-Slyter match last year was just as close as the score indicates. If anyone who sat and watched that match would call it a domination then they weren't really watching the match. That match was a dogfight. I'm fairly confident that both of them would agree with that. JMO

I remember watching that match. It was a good one.

Another thing about Zac is that he hasn't lost to another 4A 119 pounder this year. His 7 losses have came from 5A #1, All-Class #1 ranked Keller(3 of the 7 losses), 321A #1, All-Class #4 ranked Colin Hase(2 of the 7), 5A #2, All-Class #3 ranked Chase Nitcher(1 of the 7), and 4A #4 Jake Gentzler(Who will surprise you at state)(1 of the 7)...I'm just saying that I think he's been getting "the shaft" in the rankings all year. I know he doesn't care at all about rankings but i just feel he deserves a little more credit than he's gotten this year. I know i'm just bitching about the rankings but we'll find out this weekend. That's why we wrestle the matches.

Chewie, im not trying to be an ass or anything. I understand your bias to clay centre, being from there. Everyones bias towards their hometown. Im just saying Davis didnt wrestle Tischauser in the semis last year......

I've watched Tischauser and I've watched Davis. I think Davis will have the edge because he has been wrestling more than Tischauser.

santa Fe trail should be higher

One of the match ups I've been waiting for this year is Tischauser and Davis and it hasn't happened for various reasons. It should be a great match.

Mom 4 i don't know if you realized it or not but Tischhauser is a big time wrestler and has national experience.I don't see Davis having an edge, Tischhauser is an animal and is gonna make some noise i can't wait to see Tischhauser and Thoman in the 160lb final! I am not taking anything away from davis but don't see him taking marvio, marvio has many reasons to wrestle, missing last years tournament is only one of them and he's gonna go into the tournament with a fire burning so look out

i would also like to congratulate all Abilene wrestlers representing us in the state tournament, and im not too worried about being called bias either these guys have represented Abilene well and will do so in the state tournament......and a special congrats to Colten Picking for qualifying as a freshman in a tough weight class, good luck

chewie you don't think ryan taylor will place at 160?

Can he beat Clay Shaft from Douglas?

You know why Tischauser hasn't wrestled Davis, he's looking out for his record just like every other Abilene wrestler. They got the system figured out, easier tournaments + being conveinently sick= good records. Pretty sure that if Davis and Tishauser get lined up together it's going to be a lot of fun for Davis.

You shouldn't speak of things you know nothing about. So Marvio only wrestled 18 times this year because he was worried about his record? You think he ducked 18 or 20 other wrestlers caused he thought they'd all beat him? And then you think Abilene as a team is ducking other teams to give themselves better records? Maybe they shouldn't have started the year with a team like Manhattan if that was the case. Bell just rang, you probably should be getting to 9th grade english class there at CCCHS.

I don't know if he can beat Shaft, they haven't wrestled this year. I was just curious.

Well maybe the short bus dropped you off early, but I don't go to CCCHS. I do respect their program and the coaches that sacrifice a lot to get Clay Center to where they are today. I do NOT respect teams such as Abilene that, and no offense to these tournament hosts, but teams that go to pathetically easy tournaments just for the sake of records. Sure they started out with Manhattan, who else did they dual?

I guess Douglass is one of these pathetically easy tournaments you speak of? How about Beloit? I think I also saw Clay Center at this pathetically easy tournament. Although Royal Valley was cancelled due to weather is that one of the tournaments you speak so highly about? Is Phillipsburg one of these tournaments you don't think much of either? Abilene doesn't need your respect, they have the respect of the rest of the wrestling community.

Yes I would agree that Abilene has so much respect. A few years ago at their regional it seemed every abilene wrestler was booed. Forgive me, but I didn't say that their entire schedule was a cakewalk, but I don't believe Phillipsburg or Douglass really compares to Newton, or the Valley Center Duals. By the way you never did get back to me who else Abilene had dualed.

Look, I'm not bashing Clay Center's program. I think it's a great program. I think they have a lot of talent and will for years to come. Clay Center is now where Abilene was several years ago. It's extremely difficult to keep a program at the top. Abilene's wrestling picture from it's state championship years had 40+ wrestlers in it, now not even a full roster. Why would Abilene want a lot of duels? To give up 4 or 5 open weights makes it next to impossible to win a duel. Best of luck to all at State, and may the best man win.

Panama red needs to shut his mouth he doesn't know what he is talking about, u say abilenes wrestlers dodge their schedule? so having surgery on your meniscus is dodging a match? i have a feeling marvio would have loved to wrestle that match to make it where u keep ur mouth shut and quit bashin abilene. and just like it was said earlier abilene doesn't need ur respect but u can keep ur mouth shut about stuff u don't know

Panama Red: Abilene does go to some quality and very challenging tournaments. I don't think anyone looking at their schedule say they don't. However, they did stop going to Basehor and Newton like they have before. But they do have Clay Center, Concordia and may I even say Chapman in their league.

fearless40: I know all about Marvio and his talent in wrestling. What I am saying is that due to Marvio's injury this year and in the past, he has not had as many matches as Davis, including being in the finals last year at state. That is why I believe Davis will have the edge. Notice I didn't say he would win, I just said I believe he will have an edge. It will be a very close match between the two. And knowing the "love" between Clay Center and Abilene, I expect the place to be rockin.

I guess all I am saying is I would like to see how ranked Abilene wrestlers schedules matches up to other ranked wrestlers schedules.

Why didn't you just say that? I forgot the Abilene team also participated in that pathetic Baldwin tournament. (Please note the sarcasm)

The 160 weight is going to be very competitive. If you only go by the wrestling records and the wrestler with the most losses in the season will get beat by the wrestler with the least losses in the first round, then in the 2nd round no one will have more than 6 losses. I have seen some of those 6 loss wrestlers and they are only a mistake or break away from beating anyone else in the bracket. A couple first round matches are no give me either. Tischhauser 18-0 senior vs Mumaw 20-5 freshman. There is a lot of difference between the early matches in your freshman year and the level you wrestle at the end of your freshman year. Who are those losses to and how close might be interesting. Another interesting match in the first round would be Carlson 34-3 vs. Wilson 24-5. From the 2nd round on, I think any match can be a real challenge and the outcome in question. It would appear to me that Thoman 29-1 has a more secure road to the championship match, but not without significant challenge on the bottom half of the bracket. The top half of the bracket will be more competitive and more unsure about who will reach the championship match. The least losses indicate possibly the most consistant good wrestling, but in this competition a mistake or some of those mysterious "stalling" and "stalemate" calls the officials have been coming up with this year can change the outcome of a match. Everyone who attended the State 4a tournament 2 years ago saw a championmatch involving a kid from Concordia, Kerns-Sutton I think, and another very good wrestler form Eastern Kansas, and the kid who wrestled the hardest and was winning lost the match to the most awful and inexcusable officiating calls. It was not the Eastern Kansas wrestlers fault that when the awards were given the whole Bi-Center errupted into boos. It was because everone knew that the officiating took the championship away from the wrestler who had earned it, and gave it to his oppoinent. It was a very discusting degradation to wrestling and sportsmanship to have that kind of officiating involved. Hopefully, the officials in that match were disqualified from ever officiating at any level again. Any other official that would support that kind of curruption should be disqualified also. It just shows you that there are a lot of factors that can have an affect on who is standing at the top of the awards stand when it is over. There are some very very good wrestlers that have never won a State Championship, even if they dominated all thier competition all through high school.

I had him losing to Davis on the front side and Shaft on the back side.

I have a question for you Abilene folk. Marvio didn't wrestle in the dual vs. Clay, but he wrestled two days later at Phillipsburg. Was he not ready yet?

I have not seen Taylor wrestle, but from what I have been told, he can wrestle pretty well and he could possibly beat both of those 2 wrestlers. But, probably, that outcome would be likely.
But,if he has a good match, he might be capable of an upset.

Boom exactly what I was talking about

That's correct Chewie. He wasn't cleared for that dual. He went to the Phillipsburg tourney with 0 practices under his belt. Marvio has put on more miles traveling around the country for so many years to find the best competition that I would be willing to bet you he didn't duck anyone.

I wasn't implying that he would duck anyone. I don't even know him. I just wanted to know the reason.

Mom4: i figured you knew of him and his experience no hard feelings between us and i know that place will be insane

Panama: shut up u don't know what ur talking about u have to use other peoples statements to stand for urself.

Chewie: ya he hadn't been cleared by that time

just wonderin' what you thought chewie.

thanks.

It wouldn't surprise me if he placed this year. He could surprise some people.

[quote=fearless40]Mom4: i figured you knew of him and his experience no hard feelings between us and i know that place will be insane

***I saw Marvio a few times when he was a fresh or soph and he was impressive. That is all I'm going to say.

Panama: shut up u don't know what ur talking about u have to use other peoples statements to stand for urself.

***Why tell people to 'shut up'? Everyone has the right to act like a jerk if they'd like - even you!

***Chewie, i love you voice of reason and sanity and how you take the time and effort to do what you have done on this thread. Truly an amazing feat that I would never even attempt.

***Best of luck to ALL -- even those, and especially those that THINK differently than we do!

***Sincerely,

***Dean

So who has Marvio wrestled this year that was a quality opponent? I guess that I am not up to date and just want to know what his schedule has been like.

O does Ben Davis ring a bell? i beleive the score was 8-2.... that is if u consider him a quality opponent, maybe marvio havin his way with davis will make u quiet down a little bit? go ahead and find something else to complain about

Marvio didn't seem to have a problem beating Davis today. I still believe Davis and Marvio are two excellent wrestlers. I also think that if Davis and Marvio wrestle again, the match could end with Davis winning as Marvio seemed to have caught Marvio in a move that I am sure Davis would learn from.

are you just wanting to see Marvio lose or just 100% against givin him the respect he deserves i mean he beats davis and you just have to come back and say o well davis will win next time?

i don't think she said that Davis would win next time. all she said was that Davis was caught in a move and that the outcome might be different if they were to wrestle again, which i suppose you could say is the case for any two wrestlers who face each other for a second time. i didn't see the match, nor have i seen marvio wrestle since he was a soph, so i really can't say too much about it.

i don't understand why so many are targetting marvio about this now..........how many if's and's or but's are there in a state tournament....what could kober have done different? what could naylor do different? theres tons of matches where people just get caught......lemon for example in first round and the kid from ulysses sticks him and comes from behind on another match? the point is Marvio won respect his victory and face it

Great job to both Clay Center and Andale, who look like the two teams in the driver's seat for the title. Theres still alot that can happen on the backside though, and i'm hoping that Clay can win their 3rd title in 4 years tomorrow.

If anyone is coming back through the manhattan area, drop some Cozy Inn burgers off to me tomorrow. I'd be much obliged.

Marvio wrestled great the first day.

I'll drop some Cozy burgers by, but it won't be until Tuesday.

no thanks
after three days Cozy Burgers would almost taste as bad as McDonalds' burgers

No, they wouldn't. Cozy would still blow them away.

chewie your crazy good and you almost where right about the 140 weight group whitley got real luck haha

ok chewie so whats your % so far? any real surprises today?

I'm too tired to figure it out tonight. I'll do all of that on Sunday probably. There were some big surprises or upsets and there always is, but I think today had more mild upsets, if you will, than any other first day in a while.

it was a good day. alot of edge of the seat matches til the last whistle! get some sleep chewie

whitley didnt get lucky he just wrestled to the end and wrestled smart..

anyone see the sparr-slyter rematch...sounds like a barnburner

he got lucky, no way around it. the spring hill guy got off of him
with 10 seconds to go up 4-1. the spring hill guy made a huge mental error that was not caused one bit by whitley. i give whitley a lot of credit for not quitting but that doesnt mean he didnt get lucky. did he wrestle hard, yes. did he wrestle smart, i wouldnt go that far, unless you planned on the guy thinking the match is over 10 seconds early.

slyter had him the whole match and kept letting his opponent back up like he always does. came back to burn him this time. he looked real tired in the 3rd period. got taken down with 10 seconds to go after being called for stalling, and lost by one.

correction: had him the whole match except for the part where he gets his arm raised.

He could have erased that luck by winning in overtime.

HA! Good one Chewie.

Good one! I agree.

I agree Fearless40. I think mom4 for has a problem with this kid. From what I have been told this youngster has been a heck of a wrestler for a long time. Just to bad injuries have slowed him. Congrats to him with the great win! The Anti-Tischhauser fans need to get over it because there isn't going to be a rematch!!!

This must have been rigged Chewie predicting the exact number of team points for Clay Center (151). Congradulations to Clay Center on repeating as state champions.

I didn't even think about that until about 20 minutes ago. There were some great finals matches and congrats to the guys from Clay.

Okay here are the numbers:

Percentage of placers guessed that placed

60/84 = 71.4%



Percentage of placers guessed at exactly where they placed

17/84 = 20.2%



Number of state champions guessed correctly

6/14 = 42.6%



Number of matches guessed correctly

231/405 = 57%

i dont know the percents but i know that i did call genzler, cokely making the finals, Kevin Winning it, Stephans winning it... I called those upsets.

You guys who were talking smack on Marvio are hilarious. Well like I said, he stomped Davis in the semis, poor davis never stood a chance.It is a shame that his finals match went the way it did. Sam rolling through that headlock only pissed that bull-rider off, would eveyone agree? Congrats to Clay on the back to back titles.

Congratulations to Clay Town, 3 out of 4 years is pretty good by anybody's standards.

"correction: had him the whole match except for the part where he gets his arm raised. "

"He could have erased that luck by winning in overtime. "

ok guys just letting people that were not in salina know what happened in those matches. I know those guys won the matches but it is still interesting on how they got there. I happened to be in the front row for both matches because they were on the same mat and was just giving everyone the play by play of two of the biggest upsets of the tourney. chill out, we all know who won but not many know how.

I know how because I was running the clock for both matches.

we werent too far from each other then chewie. there were some good matches on that mat. yes i know naylor could of taken him down in overtime to win it, once again just layin out how it got to overtime. not everyone was as lucky as us to have front row seats for those matches.

There were some exicting matches on mat 4. Also the Page and Newson match.

didnt get to see that one because i was watching my brother in a consolation match on match 1. i saw the score after and the wrestlers give each other a big hug after the match was over. they looked exhausted.