This topic is actually from some math that I did last year after gathering statistics from the KSHSAA website. Just like this year, you smalltown posters got all antsy about how weak 5a/6a is, blahblahblah, and I refuted it. And while I didn't get 2nd place in any math bees, the math holds up.

To summarize the following post:
1) You can't declare one class more or less difficult because of losing records. People in smaller classes make varsity easier, and thus, are able to increase win totals by wrestling those with JV (or worse) ability.
2) 321A is hard. 4A is hard. 6A is hard. Even 5A is hard sometimes. (Ha--jokes.) Quit whining--each class is hard different years.
3) I hate math.

Enjoy....

*****************

Hello, friends! This is Prant, coming to you from a computer that frowns upon posting on forums of any kind. And because I'm too poor to buy my own computer, I'll just have to post to you through our good buddy Jhris and his hamburger for now.

Earlier this evening, Aaron Sweazy posted about how 18% of wrestlers in 6a place at state. This, along with the never-ending debate of "which class is hardest?" got me thinking...And because I have no life, these are some rough statistics that I came up with.

And the hardest class statistically is:
(**Drumroll please**)

6A!!!! Now here are the numbers which back up my claim, and should forever end the "Which class is hardest?" debate.

6A has approximately 37982 students, while 5A has 23024, 4a 21264, and 321 approximately 29211 potential wrestlers. Let's assume half of those students are boys. The breakdown is like this:

6A: 18911 boys
5A: 11512 boys
4A: 10632 boys
321a: 14611 boys

That means (assuming only boys wrestle), that if someone-let's call him Prant Jr.-- moved from out of state and could select from any school, any classification, the breakdown would be this:

6A: 448 available varsity spots (32 schools x 14 weights)
5A: 448 available varsity spots (32 schools x 14 weights)
4A: 896 available varsity spots (64 schools x 14 weights)
321A: 3374 available varsity spots (241 schools x 14 weights)

With both of the above statistics and using the formula (available varsity spots/# of boys), if Prant Jr. selects a school from any classification, he has the following probability of making varsity:

6A: 2.4%
5A: 3.9%
4A: 8.4%
321A: 23.1%

That's almost a 1 in 4 chance of making varsity at a 321a school! But have no fear, 321a guys, your class is very hard to place at state! But let's look at little Prant Jr.'s options for making it to state first.

Let's take all those boys and divide that by the number of available spots at state--(in 6a's case 18991 boys/448 available state qualifiers and in 321a's case 14611 boys/448 available sq's) and we get the percentage of Prant Jr. qualifying for state, assuming he still has a choice of school classification.

6A: 2.4%
5A: 3.9%
4A: 4.21%
321A: 3.1%

That means statistically, 6A is the hardest class to make it to state, followed by 321a. Sorry, 4a, you guys are last--but not by much, so it's okay.

There are 84 available state medals for each classification. Using the above statistics for boys, and dividing the available medals by the available participants (84 medals/# of boys), we find out the percentage of boys in each class who actually gain a state medal.

6A: .44%
5A: .73%
4A: .79%
321A: .57%

And there we have it, folks! If Prant Jr. has a choice of any classification, he not only has the worst statistical chance of making it on varsity in 6A, but also in making it to state AND placing. 321a comes in 2nd, 5a in third (ha, yeah right), and 4a comes in last.

Now, if you were Prant Jr., what class would YOU pick? Certainly not 6a. You might not even make it out of the mat room there...

So with all do respect, Mr. Sweazy, your math IS wrong. Maybe now that I have wasted all this time, we can shut up. All you guys who think little schools have such a hard time at state- shut your cake hole. I'm no math major so this might not be exactly accurate (a few are averaged), but I think this proves my point. No class is harder than another--but if you want to go by math....well then. You have your answer.

Thanks, and have fun on the forum!

-Prant

nice took some work Prant....

i agree wholeheartedly

Doesn't that mean statistically that larger schools do have more of a choice while smaller schools have to work with what they have THUS making something out of nothing more of a challenge? Good work Prant. As always...you are quite enjoyable

...but which class is the hardest?

Prant,
Good stuff but did you take into consideration what sports and activities were offered at each school? Let’s see 6A and 5A offer more activities than most 4A and 3A schools, so more sports and activities mean the school population must be divided more deeply.

MES

Good point MES. As far as which class is the hardest...my 3rd 9 weeks of Algebra II in High School kicked my butt. That was the hardest class for me

With all due respect to your exceptional math skills Prant, us simple folk must break it down simply:

Would you rather go to a regional where you have a 50% chance of qualifying for state or a 25% chance?

Once you are in the show, anything can happen in terms of upsets, right Prant?

I would go the 6A route too.

While things on the surface may seem easy to understand, that statement was the point of my long/boring post. Yes you have a 50% chance of qualifying at a regional tournament in 6A, but how many state qualifiers/placers or qualifier-caliber wrestlers are left at home?

Additionally, not to belittle the quality of 321a/4a wrestlers, but I am not sure if their records are not inflated. There are studs, absolutely, and many others who would make varsity at a 6a school, but how many people have better records because of opens, or because they're winning against inferior competition?

It's all relative, my friends.

Prant, in order for your math to be true the 6A schools would have 591 wrestlers each. If that is the case then we should all bow down and worship 6A wrestling. Since we all know this is not true why don't you try using only numbers of actual wrestlers.

HSKRWRSTLNG-

Nowhere in the post does it state that there are 18911 wrestlers in 6a. (I'm assuming you figured out the "591 wrestlers" by dividing 18911 by 32 schools.) By the same math, every 321A school would have to have 61 wrestlers--something I doubt very highly.

The point is, your statistics are arbitrary. Until we can know the number of wrestlers at all levels, we will never know for sure. My post simply states that Pran Jr., who is both a boy and an athlete, wants the best possible chance of making it to state, he will not choose 6A.

A point that I have brought up which no one ever answers--true, 321a/4a kids often have better records than their big class counterparts. However, how legitimate are these records? How many kids from say, Belleville(nothing against The Ville, just using it as an example), would wrestle varsity at a bigger school? I'm guessing 1-4. Therefore, every win that a 321a wrestler gets over the other 10-13 Belleville wrestlers is equivalent to a JV win.

Your records may be better, but many of them may be inflated.

In conclusion...class strength varies from year to year. Sure you have hard regionals, but get over it. And MancerL is fat.

Prant:
I am going to open this post by saying that you know me and you know I enjoy your whitty banter. I also want to add that this is not an attack on 5A or 6A wrestling, nor necessarily a ringing endorsement for 4A or 3A wrestling. I have competed in all these levels as either a wrestler or coach and have found excellent wrestling everywhere I have gone. This is simply a rebuttal to the eternal "big schools have more kids so they must be better" arguement I am so tired of hearing!

I would submit that as many or more state caliber wrestlers are left at home in 3A and 4A due to their larger, more difficult regionals. While there are several quality programs in 5A and 6A who no doubtedly have state caliber kids on JV, the same holds true for 4A, and a few programs in 3A as well. The sad fact of the matter is that a great deal of 5A and 6A teams have very little depth, or larger numbers on their teams than the average 3A team. In addition, the 3A and 4A teams (in some areas of the state at least) generally get the better athletes in their schools to come out for wrestling, whereas in MANY 5A and 6A schools those who have alot of athletic ability- play basketball or focus on football only, and those who wouldn't make those "higher profile" sports- wrestle.

I would say the same holds true for 5A and 6A opponents. I know that when my coach and I discuss tournaments we want to get in to, we specifically look for tournaments that do not necessarily have all 5A or 6A schools, because we have seen that competition all year, and know that it can leave us wanting as well, with many teams having opens and or byes. In addition I would submit that most schools compete with a wide variety of classifications over the course of a year, so the number of wins would be very small from opens. In fact, many programs will allow their JV wrestlers to take the opens in duals (or is it duels- did we ever decide?) so they do not need to waste points for their varsity wrestlers.

Depends on which big school program you are talking about. The one with 4-5 opens, I would say there is a good shot 1/2 or better would wrestle varsity, especially if they had any kids wrestling or middle school experience!

I would agree with you when you said:

The biggest fault I can find is in the number projections. They would be valid only if you get a correspondent no. of kids out. Sad fact is that most 5 and 6 a kids don't participate in sports. they look at how many kids there are and assume they have no chance. that is a guess but it is the most civil reason I can come up with.
Look at the number of open weights on 5a and 6a teams and compare with 123a teams and you see that the 123 students participate at a very much higher level. most 123a teams of any consequence have as many or more kids out than most 5a and 6a teams. that is why they are better-- there are simply more of them that care about wrestling and their part in it.

I see a point to Prant theory although I don't agree with it. I know good wrestlers come from all levels.

In the smaller classes I think there are more opens when wrestling duals. Not often do you see an open for a larger school. In 321A there are more. Matter of fact if you use the Belleville team that he talked about they gave up 10 forfeits per match which would then give easily wins. I woudl still send my kid to a larger school if he wanted to wrestle because the competition in practice would make him that much better and I would look at winning state the best accomplishment. So you have to beat them all no matter where you are at and with competition in practice it would make you push more

Prant's analysis is interesting and makes sense. And I agree 6A would by far be the toughest if more kids in 6A went out for wrestling. As a former 6A wrestler, I wish there was more participation in wrestling at bigger schools.

What happens in reality is that 25-40 wrestlers on average go out for wrestling at 4A, 5A and 6A schools. Note I say on average, becuase I know the successful schools probably get more.

When you look at things over the long run. 1-3A normally doesn't have the depth as a team. But individually, their wrestlers would compete very well at higher levels.


My conclusion is that there is equal depth throughout all classes on the individual level. But 4a might be the toughest class to win due to the fact you have to go through 64 teams vs 32.

6a and 5A might have a slight team advantage by having more depth due to large population to select from, but the 4A brackets are tougher.

I have just received a tasty email from a certain balding man (we'll call him "Bike Mammes") that helps dispute some of the 321/4A claims of "we'rethehardestclassevernooneelsecancompare."

According to this Deep Throat,

"You know as well as I do that there are some good teams and individuals, but overall every class is the same to a certain point.

321A
460 open spots at regionals possible wrestlers 1078
235 losing records in those regionals

4A
205 open spots at regionals 840 possible wrestlers
250 losing records in those regionals

all they do is weed out the losing records in qualifing for state so what's the big deal?!"

Food for thought from a balding man...

How are there 1078 possible wrestlers in 321A and 840 possible wrestlers in 4A? Where do these numbers come from? I know there aren't that many wrestlers at regionals? I think Bike may have ran out of fingers and toes to count on

PS:
Prant, do my above statements stand unchallenged? Do you have no witty rebuttal? Are you admitting defeat to a better man?

Inquiring minds want to know.

Providing there were sixteen (16) teams at each of the four (4) regionals in 4A and 3-2-1A, there are a maximum of 896 eligible wrestlers in each classification.

14 (weight classes) X 16 (man bracket) = 224 (wreslers) X 4 (Regionals) = 896

How much benefit do smaller schools gain from getting more younger kids on Varsity than larger schools, especially those with successful programs where the competition for Varsity spots are intense?

Does the additional Varsity experience at smaller schools over their High School careers give them an edge compared to wrestlers who remain on JV until their Junior or Senior years before making varsity in a large program?

Or, does the abundance of quality partners for practice in a large program make up for that lack of Varsity experience?

Personally, I think coaches want both Varsity experience AND a variety of quality practice partners available for each wrestler. But, that's difficult to attain. If a school is short on numbers, they are more limited in practices. If a school has lots of wrestlers, they have problems getting JV wrestlers enough early Varsity experience (how many schools host a major Varsity tournament and want JV teams to participate?).

Since when does a open or bye count towards your win/loss record???????